Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $18.9M open interest, suggesting the OI figure may be stale or the market is effectively inactive. The 14¢ price implies Republicans have only a 14% chance in what is historically a competitive swing state, which appears pessimistic given the 2026 cycle dynamics and the typical competitiveness of New Hampshire Senate races. The astronomical 1121% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 6/10 Cliff Risk Index indicates this is a highly speculative position with significant tail risk, likely reflecting the extreme illiquidity rather than genuine market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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