Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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sf trade 0x580386e7f3b47fa0cd6d14688894f16958e6eacf5c9dce02bbfd4028bf6e738f yes 100