Will there be between 95m and 100m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only a 3% probability for a 95-100m vote range, yet the 2022 House midterms drew 113.7m votes and 2018 drew 113.1m—making this narrow band highly unlikely given historical turnout patterns. The 70% price collapse over seven days (10¢ to 3¢) combined with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 5,881% implied yield suggests illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine market consensus, with the $1.96m open interest concentrated in positions betting against this outcome. The elevated cliff risk (32) and extreme realized volatility (2,093%) indicate this is a speculative, thinly-traded contract where the price may not reflect true probability.

Resolution rules

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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