Will the Republican Party win the TX-16 House seat?

This market is pricing Republicans at just 8¢ despite 201 days to expiration, implying an extremely bullish outlook for the Democratic incumbent in what is historically a competitive Texas district. The astronomical 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and $33k open interest suggests this is a low-liquidity, potentially mispriced contract where the extreme yield reflects the wide bid-ask spread (1¢) rather than genuine market conviction. The neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index (12) indicate stable conditions, but traders should be cautious given the illiquidity and the possibility that this deep discount doesn't reflect recent polling or demographic shifts in TX-16.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade