Will the Democratic Party win the FL-15 House seat?

The Democratic position in FL-15 is priced as a significant longshot at 17¢, implying roughly an 83% Republican lean in this district, yet the Yes side carries an extraordinarily high implied yield of 891% compared to just 37.4% for No—a massive asymmetry suggesting either deep undervaluation of Democratic chances or illiquidity-driven mispricing. With only $72.06 in 24-hour volume against $16.3M open interest and 200 days to expiry, the thin liquidity and tight 1¢ spread mask potential execution challenges, while the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 5 warrants caution on late-stage volatility near the November 2026 resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade