Will the Republican Party win the UT-03 House seat?

The Republican contract at 86¢ reflects strong confidence in GOP retention of Utah's 3rd district, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (32% for Yes vs. 1029% for No) signal that No contracts are severely mispriced relative to the baseline probability, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunities. With only $8,259 in open interest and $0.88 in 24-hour volume against a 5¢ spread, liquidity is dangerously thin for a market with 201 days to expiration, creating execution risk despite the high price certainty. The 886% realized volatility and 10.99 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced extreme price swings historically, which combined with a 6 Cliff Risk Index suggests binary event risk or structural illiquidity rather than fundamental uncertainty about the race outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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