Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market exhibits extreme volatility and pricing anomalies typical of low-liquidity binary events: the 37¢ price has surged 280% over seven days (from 10¢), generating a realized volatility of 1985% and an absurd implied yield of 3664% on the Yes side, while the 42¢ bid-ask spread represents 114% of the current price.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme volatility and pricing anomalies typical of low-liquidity binary events: the 37¢ price has surged 280% over seven days (from 10¢), generating a realized volatility of 1985% and an absurd implied yield of 3664% on the Yes side, while the 42¢ bid-ask spread represents 114% of the current price. With only $38 in 24-hour volume against $399 open interest and 14 days to expiry, the market lacks sufficient liquidity to support these extreme yield figures, suggesting the price may be driven by thin order books rather than fundamental conviction about SpaceX achieving exactly 13 launches in April 2026. The high information arrival rate (7.4/h) and cliff risk index of 1 indicate this is a binary outcome with minimal room for price discovery, making the current 37¢ quote potentially unreliable for hedging purposes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
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Trade
sf trade 0x5daafc171bf5a48d20ba88c45c9dec4a9c156c3af350bbc2be7a987ebc98601d yes 100