Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 19¢ Democratic win price that implies only a 19% probability in a state where Democrats have won every gubernatorial election since 2002, suggesting severe undervaluation of the Yes position. The astronomical 831% implied yield on Yes contracts combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $25.73 and moderate open interest of $15,547 indicates thin liquidity and likely explains the distorted pricing, as the market may be reflecting low trading activity rather than genuine conviction. The 555% realized volatility and 5/10 cliff risk index suggest this is a highly speculative, illiquid market prone to sharp repricing once meaningful volume arrives.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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