SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

The 90¢ price reflects an extremely bullish consensus on SpaceX's IPO valuation, pricing in a 90% probability of a $1.4T+ market cap at listing, though the asymmetric 527% implied yield on the "No" side suggests meaningful tail risk that traders are pricing in despite the dominant bullish lean. With only $16.74 in 24-hour volume against $12.4M open interest, liquidity is severely constrained, making the tight 1¢ spread potentially misleading about true price discovery; this illiquidity combined with a high cliff risk index of 9 indicates significant execution risk for position unwinding. The market's 623-day runway and neutral regime score suggest pricing is relatively stable, but the extreme probability skew warrants caution—such consensus-heavy markets often experience sharp repricing on material news regarding SpaceX's IPO timeline or valuation signals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Indicators

Regime

Trade