Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Kevin Warsh's confirmation odds have collapsed 48 percentage points over the past week (from 62¢ to 41¢), suggesting a significant negative development in his nomination prospects, though the 42% current price still reflects meaningful uncertainty with 29 days to expiry. The extreme implied yield of 1,833% on the Yes side and elevated realized volatility of 1,168% indicate this market is pricing in binary tail risk, likely tied to Senate confirmation dynamics or nomination status changes. With $27.3M open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity appears reasonable, but the 4.9 information arrivals per hour suggest traders are actively monitoring breaking news on this politically sensitive appointment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade