Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Polymarket, closing July 29, 2026. The market is pricing an 81% probability of three consecutive Fed pauses across April, June, and July 2026 decisions, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (82.5% for Yes versus 1500% for No) signal severe liquidity constraints and potential mispricing on the No side.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 81% probability of three consecutive Fed pauses across April, June, and July 2026 decisions, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (82.5% for Yes versus 1500% for No) signal severe liquidity constraints and potential mispricing on the No side. The 10¢ spread, modest $4.167 daily volume against $9.7k open interest, and sharp 216% realized volatility suggest this thin market may not accurately reflect true consensus, especially given the 104-day runway allows substantial time for Fed communications to shift expectations.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x647fe897e10ecde7f5bf00b420cd00b76634b7de8830ae683136c9d3102c5532 yes 100