Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Leader sits at 75% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Pause–Pause–Pause
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Other
Spread
60pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$105
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
40 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at three consecutive meetings from March through June 2026. At 95%, traders are pricing in an extremely high likelihood of continued policy pauses rather than rate cuts or hikes. The current level reflects Fed communications suggesting persistent inflation concerns and the recent pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in late 2024. The main factors supporting this high pause probability are sticky inflation metrics and recent Fed guidance emphasizing caution. Movements would likely follow Consumer Price Index releases, employment data, and Fed speakers' comments about inflation and economic conditions. The June Federal Open Market Committee meeting represents a key decision point that could shift expectations, particularly if inflation data changes meaningfully before then.
- ›PCE inflation readings for April-May 2026 will directly influence expectations about Fed patience; persistent above-target inflation would reinforce pause odds
- ›Monthly employment reports and jobless claims data between now and June will signal labor-market strength and constraint; stronger-than-expected job creation typically supports continued pauses
- ›Fed communications and speaker remarks, especially from Chair Powell and other voting members, will indicate confidence in the inflation trajectory
- ›Market pricing for March-June contracts (95%) versus April-July contracts (86%) suggests slightly elevated uncertainty about the second pause in the latter window
- ›Historical volatility in these contracts is very low ($0 24h volume on three of five contracts), indicating thin liquidity and potential for larger moves if economic data surprises
What moved the line
- Jun 18Pause–Pause–Pause↓14pp88→74¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18Other↑7pp7→14¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Pause–Pause–Pause↓7pp95→88¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in fed rate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Action Expected in July
The market is fully priced for a Fed hold in July, with the 'no hike' contract at 75¢ and a 25bps hike at 24¢. The probability of no cuts by year-end is also 75%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.
Fed: July hike priced at 23¢, 0 cuts by year-end at 78¢ as inflation persists
Fed rate markets show strong hawkish sentiment: July hike at 23¢, cut at 1¢. Year-end: 78% chance of 0 cuts, 16% for 1 cut. Gas price markets above $3.90 confirm inflation persistence, supporting the 'no easing' view.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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