Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $19,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?

The market is pricing in an 86% probability that NDX closes above $19,000 by year-end 2026, implying roughly 14% annualized upside from current levels, yet the "No" side offers an extreme 869% implied yield reflecting severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $855k open interest. The 6-cent spread is wide relative to the price, and the stark asymmetry in yields (23% vs. 869%) suggests this is a thin, one-sided market where the high probability may reflect limited sell-side liquidity rather than fundamental conviction about NDX's trajectory over the next 258 days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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