Will the Democratic Party win the OK-02 House seat?

The Democratic position is severely mispriced at 6¢, offering an extraordinary 2,850% implied yield on the Yes side, though this extreme return reflects the illiquidity crisis—$0 in 24-hour volume against $34k open interest suggests the market is essentially frozen. OK-02 is a historically Republican district, but the 16 Cliff Risk Index and massive yield asymmetry indicate this is a thin-liquidity artifact rather than a genuine probability assessment, making any position here highly speculative until volume returns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade