What is the current probability for "Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 29¢ (29% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 19, 2026. 27 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3309.1% and 552.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026.

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29¢

Bid/Ask 28/29¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $971.623·OI $24,520·Closes May 19, 2026·27d remaining

0x652002aa13ba253abd033a6a7d06457fe2a08309c7c5324598d677624cdabec3

7-day price117 snapshots · 67 regime

35¢29¢ current

Apr 826¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3309.1%

IY (No) 552.1%

Adj IY 3309%

CRI 2

RV 202%

VR 0.35

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3309.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	552.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3309%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	202%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:01:49 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:53:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x652002aa13ba253abd033a6a7d06457fe2a08309c7c5324598d677624cdabec3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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