No one announced as next James Bond?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that No one announced as next James Bond?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The 64¢ price reflects a significant recent pullback from 71¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information dampening casting speculation or profit-taking after a run-up.
Analysis
The 64¢ price reflects a significant recent pullback from 71¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information dampening casting speculation or profit-taking after a run-up. The extreme 917% implied yield on "No" combined with modest $6.9k open interest indicates thin liquidity and high sensitivity to any official announcement, creating cliff risk despite the neutral regime score. With 74 days to expiry and only $303 in daily volume, this market lacks depth to absorb larger positions without substantial price movement.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6a01c1687c781829cc90198cfd3c73f9ce64bca2a8960527868b0ad737e53f89 yes 100