Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?

The 17¢ price reflects a modest 17% probability of Abbas's departure, though the extreme 2407.7% implied yield on "Yes" positions signals the market is pricing in substantial tail risk despite low current conviction. With only $1.19 in 24-hour volume against $9.99M open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger traders. The recent price decline from 19¢ to 17¢ over seven days and the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 5 suggest heightened uncertainty as the June 30, 2026 expiration approaches in 74 days, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional momentum.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade