Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...
Leader sits at 29% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
June 30
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by
Analysis
This market estimates a 56% probability that Mahmoud Abbas will no longer serve as Palestinian President by an unspecified date. Abbas, who has led the Palestinian Authority since 2005, faces ongoing health concerns and political pressures from rival factions including Hamas. Market participants appear to be pricing in the possibility of succession or forced transition, though Abbas has repeatedly resisted calls for his resignation. The outcome hinges on Abbas's health trajectory, internal Palestinian political dynamics, and whether external actors attempt to force leadership changes. Key resolution events would include any official announcement of resignation, death, incapacity, or successful coup by rival Palestinian groups. Compared to other political leadership markets, this probability reflects moderate uncertainty about near-term Palestinian governance changes.
- ›Abbas is 88 years old with a documented history of health complications that have required hospitalization
- ›Hamas and other Palestinian factions have periodically called for Abbas's removal and control different territorial areas within Palestinian governance
- ›The Palestinian Authority faces institutional fragmentation and Abbas has limited mechanisms to enforce succession or prevent forced transition
- ›No scheduled elections or formal transition mechanisms are currently set, meaning any change would likely occur through unilateral action rather than democratic process
- ›International recognition and legitimacy of Palestinian leadership depends significantly on which faction or individual assumes control
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (29% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In politics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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