Ledger IPO closing market cap above $6B?

This Ledger IPO market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $159.52 open interest, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable for valuation purposes. The 234% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with a 408% realized volatility and 2.59 vol ratio suggests significant pricing uncertainty, though the wide 21¢ spread indicates thin order books rather than true market consensus. With 624 days to expiry and a low 0.6/h information arrival rate, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal trading activity rather than an actively discovered market price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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