Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026.

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5¢
Bid/Ask 1/10¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $5,390.998·Closes May 26, 2026·34d remaining
0x6e610816c441b2d252bda50aa01d4d2c98cf0e6efc97177143b0d9082f15ed11
7-day price319 snapshots · 2 regime
11¢7¢ current
Apr 81¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 14199.5%
IY (No) 80.4%
Adj IY 7100%
CRI 13
Overround 0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)14199.5%
IY (No)80.4%
Adj IY7100%
CRI13
Overround0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
10¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:27:06 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x6e610816c441b2d252bda50aa01d4d2c98cf0e6efc97177143b0d9082f15ed11 yes 100

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