OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

The 54¢ price reflects a modest 54% probability for OpenAI's IPO valuation exceeding $1T, though the 66% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "No" side suggests market participants are pricing in meaningful execution risk beyond pure valuation uncertainty. With 624 days to expiry, relatively thin liquidity ($1.03M open interest against $451K daily volume), and extreme realized volatility of 568%, this market is highly sensitive to OpenAI developments—the 7-day decline from 58¢ to 54¢ and elevated info arrival rate (1.5 signals/hour) indicate active repricing as new details emerge. The tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest the market is fairly balanced but illiquid enough that larger positions could move prices meaningfully.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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