Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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sf trade 0x70d8f4e6079e98fd9a34a8f6ce00a7dd3a73a924c9d9fab0664d516f38c6f280 yes 100