Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?

The 73¢ price reflects strong market confidence in Warsh's confirmation, yet the market shows critical illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $682.78 open interest, making the 42¢ spread unreliable for actual execution. The extreme 1334% implied yield on "No" signals severe mispricing likely driven by thin liquidity rather than genuine uncertainty, while the sharp 21¢ rally over seven days suggests recent positive news flow (possibly a nomination announcement). With 74 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, traders should be cautious about the spread's reliability and consider that confirmation timelines could compress significantly if a formal nomination occurs.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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