Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

This deeply illiquid market pricing a 10% probability of three consecutive Fed decisions differing from each other over April–July 2026 shows extreme mispricing, with a 3,166% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $3.97k open interest. The 4¢ spread and high cliff risk index (9) suggest the market lacks reliable price discovery, and the stagnant price movement from 9¢ to 10¢ over seven days indicates minimal trading activity to validate these odds. Given the Fed's typical pattern of multi-meeting consistency and the current neutral regime, the outsized yield likely reflects illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability, making this unsuitable for serious capital allocation.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Indicators

Regime

Trade