Will the Democratic Party win the ID-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9% probability on a historically Republican seat (ID-02 has voted GOP consistently), yet the implied yield for a Yes resolution reaches an extraordinary 1,845.5% — nearly 100x higher than the No side's 18.1%, signaling severe illiquidity and potential manipulation risk. The $17,666 open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a stale, thinly-traded position where the last trade may not reflect current market consensus, making the price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate. With 200 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market warrants caution for traders seeking genuine Democratic upset odds in this district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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