Will the Republican Party win the FL-08 House seat?

The market is pricing in an overwhelming Republican advantage at 90¢, but the extreme 1,643% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the contrarian bet—the $0 24-hour volume and modest $15.6K open interest confirm this is a thin market vulnerable to sharp repricing. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, the high-yield asymmetry suggests either genuine Republican dominance in FL-08 or a market structure issue where the small "No" position is dramatically overlevered relative to available liquidity. The tight 1¢ spread masks the underlying fragility; any meaningful Democratic momentum or polling shift could trigger significant volatility given the minimal depth on both sides.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade