Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a Republican probability of just 4¢ despite CA-15 being a competitive district that Republicans could realistically contest in 2026, yet the astronomical 4380.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market is severely undervaluing GOP chances. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $17,704 open interest and a wide 2¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to sharp moves once trading resumes. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a mispriced opportunity rather than a genuine market consensus, though the high cliff risk index (24) warrants caution about sudden resolution complications.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade