Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. Gold would need to rally approximately 8.5% from current levels to hit $5,400 by end of June 2026, yet the market is pricing this at just 29% probability with a stark 7-day price collapse from 50¢ to 29¢, suggesting recent bearish repricing.
Analysis
Gold would need to rally approximately 8.5% from current levels to hit $5,400 by end of June 2026, yet the market is pricing this at just 29% probability with a stark 7-day price collapse from 50¢ to 29¢, suggesting recent bearish repricing. The extreme 1,207% annualized yield on the "Yes" side combined with minimal 24-hour volume ($0) and moderate open interest ($43.8k) indicates thin liquidity and potential mispricing, though the low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests the binary outcome is relatively stable through expiry.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
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sf trade 0x7a280f219749e7e0ff9ac72b2f7b0166ab371f5cc96e0f0689417c769907dfe5 yes 100