Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Doug Jones is priced at an extremely high 91¢ with only 32 days to expiration, reflecting near-certainty of his Democratic primary victory, though the modest $1,922 daily volume and $15,171 open interest suggest thin liquidity for a market this decisive.
Analysis
Doug Jones is priced at an extremely high 91¢ with only 32 days to expiration, reflecting near-certainty of his Democratic primary victory, though the modest $1,922 daily volume and $15,171 open interest suggest thin liquidity for a market this decisive. The "No" side shows a wildly distorted 11,542.7% implied yield, a classic sign of extreme illiquidity where minimal contrarian positions create outsized theoretical returns—this is cliff risk territory (index: 10) rather than genuine opportunity. The 4¢ price appreciation over seven days and zero spread indicate the market has largely settled on Jones's dominance, though the approaching May 19 resolution date means any late-breaking challenger entry could rapidly repriced this consensus.
Also on kalshi at 91¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Alabama, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Alabama Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Alabama Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x7db131f56117dd3883cb0f6ce289af6176a0f322f943cb4f226122a46619544b yes 100