Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?

The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over seven days, declining from 29¢ to 22¢ (a 24% drop), suggesting reduced near-term strike expectations despite the extremely high implied yield of 9,416% on the "Yes" side. With only 14 days to expiration and minimal 24-hour volume of $115.69 against $5.6M open interest, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 2¢ spread potentially misleading and creating substantial execution risk for any meaningful position. The 859% realized volatility and elevated info arrival rate of 2.1 events per hour indicate this market remains highly reactive to geopolitical developments, though the neutral regime score and cliff risk index of 4 suggest uncertainty about whether catalysts will materialize before the April 30 deadline.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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