Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?

The 79¢ price reflects strong consensus that Trump will visit France in 2026, but the extreme 532% implied yield on "No" signals severe mispricing—traders betting against the outcome face massive returns if it fails to materialize, suggesting either deep skepticism among contrarians or a liquidity crunch on the negative side. The 198% realized volatility and 3.12 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced substantial price swings despite thin volume ($57 in 24h), and the recent 3¢ decline from 82¢ over seven days may reflect either genuine probability reassessment or noise given the low trading activity. With 258 days to resolution and a 4/10 cliff risk score, the market has adequate time for new information, but the lopsided yield structure suggests asymmetric risk that sophisticated traders may be exploiting.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade