OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

This market prices OpenAI's IPO above $1.6T at just 25¢, implying only a 25% probability despite the company's current $157B valuation and 624 days to IPO—a significant gap suggesting either deep skepticism about IPO timing or valuation growth. The 175.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high, but liquidity is extremely thin at $4,753 open interest and just $6.41 in 24-hour volume, raising concerns about price reliability and execution risk. The 1001% realized volatility and recent 5-cent price decline (30¢ to 25¢) indicate this is a highly speculative, illiquid market where small trades can move prices dramatically, making it difficult to discern true consensus probability from the quoted price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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