Will the Republican Party win the TX-27 House seat?

The market is pricing in a heavily favored Republican outcome at 87¢ with minimal recent trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting limited liquidity despite $18.7M open interest. The extreme implied yield asymmetry—27.2% for Yes versus 1217.3% for No—reflects the lopsided probability and indicates substantial risk premium for betting against Republican dominance in this Texas district. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market shows moderate event concentration risk, though the stable 1¢ price decline over seven days suggests current sentiment is relatively settled.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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