Will Marcin Tybura be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Marcin Tybura be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Tybura's 5¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability despite 258 days to resolution, with an extreme 2,688% implied yield on Yes positions offset by near-zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread indicating illiquidity.
Analysis
Tybura's 5¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability despite 258 days to resolution, with an extreme 2,688% implied yield on Yes positions offset by near-zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread indicating illiquidity. The 9.09 volatility ratio and 2,939% realized volatility suggest this market experiences sharp price swings, though the neutral regime and low 2.0/h information arrival rate indicate minimal recent catalyst activity. The $3.1M open interest combined with zero daily volume is unusual and suggests positions may be stale or locked in, warranting caution on the reliability of the current price as a true probability estimate.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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sf trade 0x85292d10520274f8c31aef271ff5311b877a803cbf6c38f394fb31469cd5b9bf yes 100