Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?

This market is pricing in only a 16% probability of SpaceX raising between $80B-$90B, despite the company's $180B+ valuation in private markets suggesting an IPO in that range is plausible. The extreme 1185% realized volatility and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) indicate this is a highly illiquid, speculative position with a wide 6¢ spread, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With an info arrival rate of 1.9 events per hour and no apparent expiry date mentioned, this market appears to be in a holding pattern awaiting concrete IPO timing announcements that could dramatically shift pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade