Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 33¢ shows extreme mispricing with a 386% implied yield on the Yes side against only 85.5% on the No side, suggesting significant market inefficiency or information asymmetry in this illiquid venue ($0 24h volume, $13.3k open interest). The astronomical 1647% realized volatility and 9.72 vol ratio indicate violent price swings despite the neutral regime, while the 5¢ spread and low liquidity make execution risky for larger positions ahead of the 201-day expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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