Will the Democratic Party win the SC-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1471.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 22.5% on the No side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in SC-05 or reflects minimal liquidity-driven mispricing. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $22.3M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates this is a stale, illiquid position where the last trade may not reflect current sentiment, particularly concerning given the elevated 8 Cliff Risk Index and 201 days to expiration. The neutral regime score and massive yield differential warrant caution—this could represent either genuine Republican dominance in the district or a liquidity trap where the low price reflects lack of trading rather than true probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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