Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?

The market is pricing a 13% probability for this $2.0T-$2.25T valuation band, down sharply from 18¢ seven days ago, suggesting traders have shifted expectations either higher or lower than this range. With only $62.9K in 24-hour volume against $2.7M open interest and an 11¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential execution challenges. The extreme 1908% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (7) indicate this market experiences dramatic swings, likely driven by SpaceX news flow (2.6 info arrivals per hour) rather than fundamental repricing, making it speculative and difficult to trade efficiently.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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