Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $3.7M open interest, suggesting the 17¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 690.9% implied yield on the Yes side. The 2¢ spread is notably tight relative to the price, but the zero volume indicates this could be stale pricing rather than an actively discovered equilibrium. With 258 days to expiry and a modest 1¢ price increase over seven days, the market appears to be in a holding pattern, though the 5 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution around potential late-stage volatility if geopolitical developments shift expectations around Trump's 2026 travel plans.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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