Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

The market is pricing an 80% probability of no Fed rate change at the July 2026 meeting, but the extreme asymmetry in implied yields (88% vs. 1,408%) signals severe mispricing or illiquidity on the "No" side, where a rate cut would pay out massively. With only $28.8M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, the $7.97M daily volume suggests moderate liquidity that may not be sufficient to absorb larger positions, particularly given the 154% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index of 4. The market has drifted down just 1¢ over seven days in a neutral regime, but the outsized "No" yield indicates sophisticated traders may be positioning for a surprise rate cut, creating a potential value opportunity if Fed policy expectations shift materially before the July 2026 expiration.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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