Will the Democratic Party win the FL-19 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $21.6K open interest, suggesting the 10¢ Democratic price may not reflect genuine consensus and could be vulnerable to manipulation or stale positioning. The 1,642% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and inversely correlated with the 9/10 cliff risk index, indicating the market is pricing in either severe Democratic underdog status in FL-19 or significant structural inefficiency given the 200-day timeframe to November 2026. The neutral regime score and tight 1¢ spread provide little additional conviction, but the massive yield asymmetry warrants caution—this appears to be a low-conviction, low-liquidity market where the price discovery mechanism may be broken.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade