Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the "No" side offering a 1030.8% implied yield versus just 32.1% for "Yes," suggesting severe underpricing of Republican loss scenarios despite the 85¢ price reflecting strong GOP favorability in SC-02. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $22,460 open interest and a tight 2¢ spread indicates low liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions, while the 6 Cliff Risk Index warns of potential sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election. With over 200 days until expiry and no price movement in the past week, this market appears to be pricing in a highly confident Republican outcome, though the extreme yield differential suggests contrarian bettors may see value in the underdog position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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