Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided 93% probability for a Democratic win in TN-09, yet the No side offers an extraordinary 2416.7% implied yield compared to just 13.7% for Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or that contrarian bettors see significant value in the Republican upset scenario. With zero 24-hour volume despite $30k in open interest and 201 days to expiration, this appears to be a low-liquidity, stale market where the extreme yield asymmetry may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather illiquidity and the difficulty of shorting the heavily favored outcome. The 13-point Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as it indicates potential for sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election as new information emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade