Will the Democratic Party win the TX-12 House seat?

The Democratic position in TX-12 is priced as a significant long-shot at 14¢, implying only a 14% win probability in a traditionally Republican district, though the extreme 1121.2% implied yield on the Yes side suggests substantial mispricing potential if Democrats mount an unexpected challenge. With 200 days to expiration and relatively thin liquidity ($50.3 in 24h volume despite $13.6M open interest), the market shows a tight 1¢ spread but elevated cliff risk (6/10), indicating potential volatility as the election approaches and candidate quality becomes clearer. The neutral regime score and modest 29.7% yield on the No side suggest the market views Republican retention as the consensus outcome, though the extreme asymmetry in yields warrants monitoring for shifting fundamentals in this Austin-area seat.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade