Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2M in open interest, suggesting the $2,012 position may be concentrated among few traders.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2M in open interest, suggesting the $2,012 position may be concentrated among few traders. The 5¢ price implies only a 5% probability for Seager, yet the implied yield of 3,291% on the yes side indicates severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty about Seager's 2026 performance relative to other AL hitters. The wide 7¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 19 suggest this is a thin, difficult-to-exit position with significant execution risk for anyone looking to trade.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0x9169a4ac35044157c846fda10e0aa5ef9d6695f4c0a89de2d8cd33181ab5094e yes 100