Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

The market has experienced a dramatic 50% price collapse over seven days (48¢ to 24¢), suggesting a significant negative information arrival regarding Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization, yet the extreme implied yield of 8,429% on the Yes side indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With only 14 days to resolution and a tight 1¢ spread on $854k open interest, the market appears to be pricing in very low probability of achieving the 60 transit calls threshold, though the elevated realized volatility (614%) and info arrival rate (1.4/h) suggest ongoing uncertainty about near-term shipping conditions. The cliff risk index of 3 combined with approaching expiry warrants caution, as any sudden positive shipping data could trigger sharp repricing in this thin market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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