Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. At 5¢ with an extraordinary 50,572% implied yield on the Yes side, this market is pricing an extremely low probability that OpenAI holds the #2 position on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, suggesting strong market conviction that either Anthropic, Google, or another competitor will occupy that spot.
Analysis
At 5¢ with an extraordinary 50,572% implied yield on the Yes side, this market is pricing an extremely low probability that OpenAI holds the #2 position on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, suggesting strong market conviction that either Anthropic, Google, or another competitor will occupy that spot. The massive yield asymmetry combined with a 19 Cliff Risk Index and 1,290% realized volatility indicates extreme uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the thin $85.23 daily volume raises liquidity concerns for position sizing. With only 14 days to resolution and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative tail bet rather than a fundamental market assessment of AI model rankings.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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sf trade 0x94466853437f212f0a13a8f23c7cb37d5f28597c904f0d823ca5d680a4ae9ae2 yes 100