Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

Yang Seung-jo's odds have collapsed dramatically from 69¢ to 3¢ over seven days, suggesting a major negative information event or shift in polling that spooked traders. The extreme 25,152% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing opportunity if he somehow recovers, but the 8,007% realized volatility and high cliff risk (32) indicate this is an unstable, event-driven market rather than a genuine opportunity. With only $1.4M in 24-hour volume against $23M open interest and the market closing just before the June 3 election, liquidity is thin relative to positions, creating potential execution risk for large traders trying to exit.

Resolution rules

The Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Chungcheongnam Province. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

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Regime

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