Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of April?

The 83¢ price reflects an 83% probability that MSFT closes above $390 by April 30, 2026, but the extreme 15,747% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—traders betting against this outcome are pricing in massive tail risk despite only an 11-day window and neutral market regime. The 12¢ spread and modest $37.9K daily volume suggest thin liquidity that may be amplifying the distortion, while the 155% realized volatility and 5/10 cliff risk index indicate genuine uncertainty that doesn't fully justify such lopsided odds. This appears to be a liquidity-driven anomaly rather than a fundamental repricing, making the "No" side potentially attractive for contrarian traders despite the low probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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