Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
0x95783b62c693ea42d8613482a625828fc14a288e8e8440b974c54d42f4ffd04b · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · match confidence 0.86 · close-time delta 39h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 499.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.14 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 216% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
110 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x95783b62c693ea42d8613482a625828fc14a288e8e8440b974c54d42f4ffd04b yes 100